Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in California
Cinnamon Teal in California has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1972.
-79%Since 1972
87Routes In State
54Years
Notable Cinnamon Teal Trends in California
long arc declinecomputed index
Cinnamon Teal has collapsed in California: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1972.
Cinnamon Teal Population Forecast in California
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in California is projected to rise about 230% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2415.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+230%Change by 2029
0.75Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.995% range
±2415.3%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 1.9 |
| 2026 | 0.78 | 0.00 | 1.9 |
| 2027 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 1.9 |
| 2028 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 1.9 |
| 2029 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 1.9 |
Cinnamon Teal Survey Routes in California
| Dorris | 84 | 2019 | 1972 |
| Lockwood | 32 | 2005 | 1974 |
| Tranquillity | 21 | 2001 | 1972 |
| Macdoel | 18 | 2019 | 1974 |
| Imperial Dam | 13 | 1978 | 1978 |
| Likely | 12 | 2024 | 1974 |
| Ravendale | 7 | 1998 | 1973 |
| Arvin | 7 | 1999 | 1971 |
| Crowder Flat | 7 | 2018 | 2002 |
| Pennington | 5 | 2008 | 1979 |
| Poway | 5 | 1980 | 1973 |
| Mesa Grande | 5 | 2006 | 1998 |
| Bartle | 5 | 1986 | 1986 |
| Bakersfield | 4 | 1972 | 1970 |
| Niland | 4 | 2019 | 1982 |
| Jacumba | 4 | 1988 | 1986 |
| Atwater | 4 | 2004 | 1973 |
| Hughson | 3 | 2024 | 1978 |
| Haiwee Res | 3 | 2000 | 1976 |
| Ingalls | 3 | 1997 | 1973 |
| Lone Pine | 3 | 2000 | 1983 |
| Clear Lk Res | 3 | 2018 | 1975 |
| Zamora | 3 | 1987 | 1982 |
| Athlone | 3 | 1979 | 1979 |
| Nubieber | 2 | 2018 | 1971 |
Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.