BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in California

All statesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in California has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-79%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cinnamon Teal Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cinnamon Teal has collapsed in California: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Cinnamon Teal Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in California is projected to rise about 230% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2415.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+230%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.75Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2415.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in California is projected to rise about 230% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2415.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.790.001.9
20260.780.001.9
20270.770.001.9
20280.760.001.9
20290.750.001.9

Cinnamon Teal Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dorris8420191972
Lockwood3220051974
Tranquillity2120011972
Macdoel1820191974
Imperial Dam1319781978
Likely1220241974
Ravendale719981973
Arvin719991971
Crowder Flat720182002
Pennington520081979
Poway519801973
Mesa Grande520061998
Bartle519861986
Bakersfield419721970
Niland420191982
Jacumba419881986
Atwater420041973
Hughson320241978
Haiwee Res320001976
Ingalls319971973
Lone Pine320001983
Clear Lk Res320181975
Zamora319871982
Athlone319791979
Nubieber220181971

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.