BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-61%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cinnamon Teal Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cinnamon Teal has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Cinnamon Teal Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.22
20270.070.000.22
20280.070.000.22
20290.070.000.22
20300.070.000.22

Cinnamon Teal Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pinon820032003
Wagon Mound519731973
Columbus520191997
Grenville419791978
Dulce420232003
Capulin219931993
Fence Lake220162016
San Antonio219751974
Angel Fire 2220252005
Maxwell220111996
Laborcita119971993
Angel Fire120011992

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.