BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-59%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cinnamon Teal Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cinnamon Teal has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Cinnamon Teal Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in New Mexico is projected to fall about 32% by 2028 — from 0.11 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in New Mexico is projected to fall about 32% by 2028 — from 0.11 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.080.000.23
20250.080.000.23
20260.080.000.23
20270.080.000.23
20280.080.000.23

Cinnamon Teal Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pinon820032003
Wagon Mound519731973
Columbus520191997
Grenville419791978
Dulce420232003
Capulin219931993
Fence Lake220162016
San Antonio219751974
Maxwell220111996
Laborcita119971993
Angel Fire120011992
Angel Fire 2120232005

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.