BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Nevada

All statesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Nevada has surged: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+88%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cinnamon Teal Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cinnamon Teal has surged in Nevada: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cinnamon Teal Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Nevada is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±426.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±426.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Nevada is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±426.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.740.004.4
20270.720.004.4
20280.710.004.3
20290.690.004.3
20300.670.004.3

Cinnamon Teal Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cortez1820251968
Virgin Creek1520181997
Hiko1220211969
Frenchman519771977
Nixon519921988
Ranchogrande320181990
Sand Pass320001989
Ruby Valley319971997
Bald Mtn.320251992
Fallon320221992
Vya219731973
Fish Creek219971997
Mizpah220212021
Carson River220022002
Toiyabe Nf220181995
Eureka220021990
Majors Place220191970
Dobbin Creek220171968
Charleston Reservoir220242024
Midas120151990
Dinner Sta119931971
Humboldt Nf119931993
Sheldon Nwr120101994
Ruby Valley 2120242006
Gardnerville120121994

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.