BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Nevada

All statesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Nevada has increased: up 44% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+44%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cinnamon Teal Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cinnamon Teal in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Cinnamon Teal Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Nevada is projected to rise about 364% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±412.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+364%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±412.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Nevada is projected to rise about 364% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±412.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.730.004.4
20260.710.004.4
20270.700.004.4
20280.680.004.3
20290.660.004.3

Cinnamon Teal Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Virgin Creek1520181997
Hiko1220211969
Frenchman519771977
Nixon519921988
Gardnerville 2420182018
Ranchogrande320181990
Sand Pass320001989
Ruby Valley319971997
Fallon320221992
Vya219731973
Fish Creek219971997
Mizpah220212021
Carson River220022002
Toiyabe Nf220181995
Eureka220021990
Majors Place220191970
Dobbin Creek220171968
Charleston Reservoir220242024
Bald Mtn.220181992
Midas120151990
Dinner Sta119931971
Humboldt Nf119931993
Cortez120241968
Sheldon Nwr120101994
Ruby Valley 2120242006

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.