BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Utah has surged: up 275% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+275%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cinnamon Teal Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cinnamon Teal has surged in Utah: up 275% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Cinnamon Teal Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Utah is projected to rise about 138% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+138%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±162.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Utah is projected to rise about 138% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.003.5
20261.20.003.5
20271.20.003.5
20281.20.003.5
20291.20.003.5

Cinnamon Teal Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear River6420231992
Goshen2520241968
Alton1520191997
Saleratus Cr820181995
Salt Springs620211999
Callao620231992
Skyline Driv619921988
Timpie Spg420001981
M Warner Res420241994
Dixie Nf420161994
Vernal420181999
Promontory320232005
Boulder320111971
Randolph320221992
Wendover219711971
Altonah220002000
Neponset Res220171995
Woodruff220182009
Stock Res219951995
Beaver219971992
Iron Springs219891989
Navajo Lake220141995
Aneth220062006
Grouse Creek219861986
Wellington 2220112011

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.