BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Washington

All statesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Washington has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-75%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cinnamon Teal Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cinnamon Teal has fallen sharply in Washington: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Cinnamon Teal Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.001.3
20260.070.001.3
20270.050.001.3
20280.040.001.3
20290.020.001.3

Cinnamon Teal Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hanford Site619931993
Columbia Nwr620211992
Othello619911981
Wapato419951972
Connell419971975
Nighthawk420192019
Potholes420191997
Brewster320181977
Deception319931993
Reardan320051974
Turnbull Nwr220211993
L Pend O Nwr220232022
Harrington219991983
Asotin219881988
Camas219911991
Tonasket220181986
Cusick220101984
Quincy220121982
Wilbur219841984
Keystone220241997
Omak Creek220212007
Mukilteo220112011
Moses Coulee220231997
Odessa219971997
Yakima220091997

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.