BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Montana

All statesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Montana has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-26%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cinnamon Teal Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cinnamon Teal in Montana. See the full index history below.

Cinnamon Teal Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±236.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±236.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±236.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.000.44
20260.170.000.44
20270.170.000.44
20280.170.000.44
20290.170.000.44

Cinnamon Teal Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheat Basin920232023
Glen520181977
Dinosaurs H.M.520212021
Pablo Res.520161997
Highwood420131979
Kalispell320141970
Great Falls320181972
Leroy320192007
Jordan319851985
Shelby320182018
Wolf Creek320222019
Whitlash320172012
Hay Lake220181994
Sunburst220061976
Malta219941994
Polson220001988
Augusta220181978
Roy220231995
Elliston220232010
Boulder219711971
Two Dot220181981
Flatwillow219831983
Willow Creek219801980
Reed Point220161994
Red Rock220231978

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.