BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Texas

All statesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Texas has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+94%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cinnamon Teal Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cinnamon Teal in Texas. See the full index history below.

Cinnamon Teal Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±163.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±163.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±163.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.040.000.08
20240.040.000.08
20250.040.000.08
20260.040.000.08
20270.040.000.08

Cinnamon Teal Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Friona1120182017
Waka520171975
Presidio220062000
Pantex219991979
Booker220022002
Floydada220162005
Dougherty220151997
Circle120011993
Texline119991999
Claytonville120221995
Dalhart120191994
Rock Island119691969
Lamesa120152015

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.