BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Idaho

All statesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Idaho has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-61%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cinnamon Teal Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cinnamon Teal has fallen sharply in Idaho: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Cinnamon Teal Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Idaho is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Idaho is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.530.001.5
20260.520.001.5
20270.520.001.5
20280.520.001.5
20290.510.001.5

Cinnamon Teal Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Naples1020221973
Preston820141988
Blackft Res620181984
Dougal Res619911990
Blacks Creek419891971
Henry419811974
Twin Buttes319991999
Glenns Ferry319861986
Bates320231989
Cedar Hill320241992
Mivoden219771977
Baker220241974
Challis219951975
Centerville220111995
Craters219831982
Triangle220151986
Pocatello219981994
Salmon River219881988
Burgdorf219901990
Iron Springs220241988
Featherville220112001
Cabarton219941986
Kyle Canyon119991999
Cascade119841968
Cape Horn119971997

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.