BirdAnalyst
Guild · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Waterfowl In Nebraska

All statesNebraska

11 species in this guild. As a group they are +73%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for waterfowl in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in Nebraska is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.44–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.44–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in Nebraska is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.44–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.392.4
20261.40.412.4
20271.40.422.4
20281.40.432.4
20291.40.442.5

Member Species In Nebraska

Waterfowl species in Nebraska.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Northern PintailAnatidae-90%
Northern ShovelerAnatidae-74%
Trumpeter SwanAnatidae-58%
Ruddy DuckAnatidae-54%
GadwallAnatidae-38%
Green-winged TealAnatidae-33%
MallardAnatidae+26%
RedheadAnatidae+84%
Blue-winged TealAnatidae+153%
Wood DuckAnatidae+528%
Canada GooseAnatidae22×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.