BirdAnalyst
Guild · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Waterfowl In North Dakota

All statesNorth Dakota

16 species in this guild. As a group they are +321%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for waterfowl in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Waterfowl In North Dakota Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 7.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.2–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 7.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025116.516
2026116.716
2027126.916
2028127.016
2029127.217

Member Species In North Dakota

Waterfowl species in North Dakota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
American WigeonAnatidae-39%
Northern PintailAnatidae+26%
Green-winged TealAnatidae+160%
Blue-winged TealAnatidae+173%
Ruddy DuckAnatidae+240%
CanvasbackAnatidae+254%
GadwallAnatidae+267%
MallardAnatidae+317%
Ring-necked DuckAnatidae+443%
Northern ShovelerAnatidae+500%
Wood DuckAnatidae+518%
RedheadAnatidae+755%
Lesser ScaupAnatidae+927%
Hooded MerganserAnatidae11×
BuffleheadAnatidae11×
Canada GooseAnatidae704×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.