BirdAnalyst
Guild · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Waterfowl In West Virginia

All statesWest Virginia

3 species in this guild. As a group they are +606%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for waterfowl in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in West Virginia is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.0–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in West Virginia is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.0–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.893.2
20262.10.933.3
20272.10.963.3
20282.20.993.3
20292.21.03.4

Member Species In West Virginia

Waterfowl species in West Virginia.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Wood DuckAnatidae-18%
MallardAnatidae+78%
Canada GooseAnatidae11×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.