BirdAnalyst
Guild · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Waterfowl In Kansas

All statesKansas

10 species in this guild. As a group they are -40%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Waterfowl as a group have declined in Kansas, down 40% since 1969.

Waterfowl In Kansas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in Kansas is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.10–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+81%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in Kansas is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.10–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.680.101.3
20260.680.101.3
20270.680.101.3
20280.680.101.3
20290.680.101.3

Member Species In Kansas

Waterfowl species in Kansas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
GadwallAnatidae-95%
Ruddy DuckAnatidae-93%
Blue-winged TealAnatidae-90%
Northern PintailAnatidae-81%
MallardAnatidae-79%
Green-winged TealAnatidae-72%
RedheadAnatidae-47%
Northern ShovelerAnatidae+1%
Canada GooseAnatidae+1%
Wood DuckAnatidae+370%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.