BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cinnamon Teal In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+59%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cinnamon Teal has risen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Cinnamon Teal In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.000.66
20270.290.000.66
20280.290.000.66
20290.290.000.66
20300.290.000.66

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AltonUTAH152019
Mcphee Res.COLORADO122025
M Warner ResUTAH82025
PiedraCOLORADO62025
DinosaurCOLORADO62025
Baxter PassCOLORADO62016
Skyline DrivUTAH61992
CastletonCOLORADO52021
CortezCOLORADO52007
BicknellUTAH52025
Dry ParkARIZONA42007
DeltaCOLORADO41998
MoffatCOLORADO42017
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO41974
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO42009
TincupCOLORADO42023
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO42025
DulceNEW-MEXICO42023
Dixie NfUTAH42016
VernalUTAH42018
BrookhurstWYOMING42005
Groundhog RsCOLORADO31998
AngoraCOLORADO32019
Stillwater PassCOLORADO32001
BoulderUTAH32011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.