BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cinnamon Teal In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+125%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cinnamon Teal in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Cinnamon Teal In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.20
20270.080.000.20
20280.080.000.20
20290.080.000.20
20300.080.000.20

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheat BasinMONTANA92023
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA62004
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA52021
HighwoodMONTANA42013
LeroyMONTANA32019
JordanMONTANA31985
WyarnoWYOMING32015
RoyMONTANA22025
Two DotMONTANA22025
FlatwillowMONTANA21983
Reed PointMONTANA22016
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA21998
DaytonWYOMING21983
RecluseWYOMING22000
RozetWYOMING22025
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING22009
BucknumWYOMING22018
ShawmutMONTANA12019
IngomarMONTANA11991
LindsayMONTANA12024
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA11978
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA11996
NatronaWYOMING11992
SussexWYOMING12005
RiverviewWYOMING12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.