BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+119%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cinnamon Teal has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Cinnamon Teal In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.20
20260.080.000.20
20270.080.000.20
20280.080.000.20
20290.080.000.21

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheat BasinMONTANA92023
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA62004
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA52021
HighwoodMONTANA42013
LeroyMONTANA32019
JordanMONTANA31985
WyarnoWYOMING32015
RoyMONTANA22023
Two DotMONTANA22018
FlatwillowMONTANA21983
Reed PointMONTANA22016
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA21998
DaytonWYOMING21983
RecluseWYOMING22000
KayceeWYOMING22024
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING22009
BucknumWYOMING22018
ShawmutMONTANA12019
IngomarMONTANA11991
LindsayMONTANA12024
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA11978
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA11996
NatronaWYOMING11992
SussexWYOMING12005
RiverviewWYOMING12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.