BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Great Basin has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+58%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
144Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cinnamon Teal has risen sharply in Great Basin: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cinnamon Teal In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Great Basin is projected to rise about 98% by 2029 — from 0.62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+98%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±117.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Great Basin is projected to rise about 98% by 2029 — from 0.62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.003.4
20261.30.003.4
20271.30.003.4
20281.30.003.4
20291.20.003.3

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DorrisCALIFORNIA842019
Bear RiverUTAH642023
GoshenUTAH252024
MacdoelCALIFORNIA182019
Blizzard GapOREGON172023
Virgin CreekNEVADA152018
PrincetonOREGON141985
Warner VallyOREGON132024
LikelyCALIFORNIA122024
HikoNEVADA122021
Barnes ValOREGON111987
Fish LakeOREGON102023
Catlow RimOREGON102024
PrestonIDAHO82014
Lone RockOREGON82015
RavendaleCALIFORNIA71998
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA72018
Blackft ResIDAHO62018
Dougal ResIDAHO61991
Modoc Point 2OREGON62024
Salt SpringsUTAH62021
CallaoUTAH62023
OthelloWASHINGTON61991
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON62021
Hanford SiteWASHINGTON61993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.