BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-63%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cinnamon Teal has fallen sharply in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Cinnamon Teal In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 94% by 2024 — from 0.10 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-94%Change by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±191.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 94% by 2024 — from 0.10 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.040.000.50
20210.030.000.49
20220.020.000.48
20230.010.000.47
20240.010.000.47

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cutter 2ARIZONA182016
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA131978
CoolidgeARIZONA61976
VicksburgARIZONA51988
NilandCALIFORNIA42019
LagunaARIZONA32013
AjoARIZONA32000
Casa GrandeARIZONA32018
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA32000
Lone PineCALIFORNIA32000
Lucerne ValCALIFORNIA21989
ArabyARIZONA12011
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA12016
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA11992
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA11984
BrawleyCALIFORNIA12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.