BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-63%Since 1979
16Routes In Region
28Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Cinnamon Teal has fallen sharply in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 94% by 2024 — from 0.10 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-94%Change by 2024
0.01Projected 2024 index
0.00–0.4795% range
±191.8%Backtest error
19762024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20200.040.000.50
20210.030.000.49
20220.020.000.48
20230.010.000.47
20240.010.000.47

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Cutter 2ARIZONA182016
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA131978
CoolidgeARIZONA61976
VicksburgARIZONA51988
NilandCALIFORNIA42019
LagunaARIZONA32013
AjoARIZONA32000
Casa GrandeARIZONA32018
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA32000
Lone PineCALIFORNIA32000
Lucerne ValCALIFORNIA21989
ArabyARIZONA12011
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA12016
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA11992
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA11984
BrawleyCALIFORNIA12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.