BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-73%Since 1978
3Routes In Region
35Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Cinnamon Teal has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 80% by 2028 — from 0.36 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-80%Change by 2028
0.07Projected 2028 index
0.00–0.8695% range
±62.2%Backtest error
19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.120.000.90
20250.100.000.89
20260.090.000.88
20270.080.000.87
20280.070.000.86

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Sierra Madre Occidental.
AlpineARIZONA82023
Mormon LakeARIZONA31970
PrescottARIZONA22015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.