BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Coastal California has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-85%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cinnamon Teal has collapsed in Coastal California: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Cinnamon Teal In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Coastal California is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±779.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±779.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Coastal California is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±779.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.81
20260.120.000.80
20270.110.000.79
20280.090.000.77
20290.080.000.76

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LockwoodCALIFORNIA322005
TranquillityCALIFORNIA212001
ArvinCALIFORNIA71999
PenningtonCALIFORNIA52008
PowayCALIFORNIA51980
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA52006
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA41972
JacumbaCALIFORNIA41988
AtwaterCALIFORNIA42004
HughsonCALIFORNIA32024
ZamoraCALIFORNIA31987
AthloneCALIFORNIA31979
MorenoCALIFORNIA21986
San YsidroCALIFORNIA21989
Big BearCALIFORNIA21986
OrlandCALIFORNIA22010
Lake HemetCALIFORNIA21981
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA22015
AnzaCALIFORNIA21984
SangerCALIFORNIA22024
Elizabeth LkCALIFORNIA21985
Carrizo PlnCALIFORNIA21998
GlennCALIFORNIA22009
TehamaCALIFORNIA21988
OnealsCALIFORNIA21981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.