BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Coastal California has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-85%Since 1972
52Routes In Region
50Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Cinnamon Teal has collapsed in Coastal California: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Coastal California is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±779.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2029
0.08Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.7695% range
±779.8%Backtest error
19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.130.000.81
20260.120.000.80
20270.110.000.79
20280.090.000.77
20290.080.000.76

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Coastal California.
LockwoodCALIFORNIA322005
TranquillityCALIFORNIA212001
ArvinCALIFORNIA71999
PenningtonCALIFORNIA52008
PowayCALIFORNIA51980
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA52006
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA41972
JacumbaCALIFORNIA41988
AtwaterCALIFORNIA42004
HughsonCALIFORNIA32024
ZamoraCALIFORNIA31987
AthloneCALIFORNIA31979
MorenoCALIFORNIA21986
San YsidroCALIFORNIA21989
Big BearCALIFORNIA21986
OrlandCALIFORNIA22010
Lake HemetCALIFORNIA21981
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA22015
AnzaCALIFORNIA21984
SangerCALIFORNIA22024
Elizabeth LkCALIFORNIA21985
Carrizo PlnCALIFORNIA21998
GlennCALIFORNIA22009
TehamaCALIFORNIA21988
OnealsCALIFORNIA21981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.