BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Northern Rockies has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-41%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cinnamon Teal in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Cinnamon Teal In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.38 (95% range 0.07–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±381.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.7095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±381.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.38 (95% range 0.07–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±381.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.060.70
20260.380.070.70
20270.380.070.70
20280.380.070.70
20290.380.070.70

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NaplesIDAHO102022
SpartaOREGON102001
SeedskadeeWYOMING102016
Hayden ValWYOMING101986
Saleratus CrUTAH82018
AnchorWYOMING82016
GeboWYOMING62015
Pablo Res.MONTANA52016
GlenMONTANA52018
FontenelleWYOMING52016
SweetwaterWYOMING51991
Silver CreekOREGON42004
MeeteetseWYOMING42011
TensleepWYOMING41998
PathfinderWYOMING42022
Flamin GorgeWYOMING42018
KalispellMONTANA32014
Wolf CreekMONTANA32022
RandolphUTAH32022
Ne EntranceWYOMING31998
BoulderWYOMING32018
Mtn ViewWYOMING32023
MaybellCOLORADO21976
MivodenIDAHO21977
ChallisIDAHO21995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.