BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cinnamon Teal In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-53%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cinnamon Teal has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Cinnamon Teal In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 250% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.04–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±344.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+250%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±344.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 250% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.04–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±344.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.360.040.68
20270.360.040.68
20280.360.040.68
20290.360.040.68
20300.360.040.68

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpartaOREGON102001
SeedskadeeWYOMING102016
Hayden ValWYOMING101986
Saleratus CrUTAH82018
AnchorWYOMING82016
GeboWYOMING62015
Pablo Res.MONTANA52016
GlenMONTANA52018
FontenelleWYOMING52016
SweetwaterWYOMING51991
Silver CreekOREGON42004
MeeteetseWYOMING42011
TensleepWYOMING41998
Flamin GorgeWYOMING42018
KalispellMONTANA32014
Wolf CreekMONTANA32022
RandolphUTAH32022
Ne EntranceWYOMING31998
BoulderWYOMING32018
YellowstoneWYOMING32025
MaybellCOLORADO21976
LayCOLORADO22025
MivodenIDAHO21977
ChallisIDAHO21995
CentervilleIDAHO22011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.