BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Northern Pacific Rainforest has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+6%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cinnamon Teal in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Cinnamon Teal In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 16% by 2027 — from 0.08 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 16% by 2027 — from 0.08 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.070.000.20
20240.070.000.20
20250.070.000.20
20260.070.000.20
20270.070.000.20

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DaytonOREGON81993
AdairOREGON62022
DeceptionWASHINGTON31993
OrleansCALIFORNIA21978
YrekaCALIFORNIA22019
SvensenOREGON21991
CamasWASHINGTON21991
MukilteoWASHINGTON22011
CarnationWASHINGTON21997
Mendota 3WASHINGTON22018
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA11975
MccloudCALIFORNIA11984
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA11984
UmpquaOREGON11975
WinberryOREGON11975
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON12017
ScappooseOREGON12008
Port AngelesWASHINGTON11970
Warm BeachWASHINGTON11992
Bunker HillWASHINGTON12019
EverettWASHINGTON12019
South ElmaWASHINGTON11990
Bay ViewWASHINGTON12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.