BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-58%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cinnamon Teal has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Cinnamon Teal In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.050.000.19
20240.050.000.19
20250.050.000.19
20260.040.000.18
20270.040.000.18

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FrionaTEXAS112018
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO51973
WakaTEXAS52017
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO41979
KiowaCOLORADO22012
Mica ButteCOLORADO21982
KirkCOLORADO22009
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO21994
NunnCOLORADO22014
Murray LakeNEBRASKA22015
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO22011
HookerOKLAHOMA21997
PantexTEXAS21999
FloydadaTEXAS22016
DoughertyTEXAS22015
Pine BluffWYOMING22022
LamarCOLORADO12007
HudsonCOLORADO12010
GroverCOLORADO12009
JulesburgCOLORADO12002
LamesaTEXAS12015
CircleTEXAS12001
TexlineTEXAS11999
ClaytonvilleTEXAS12022
DalhartTEXAS12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.