BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher

TyrannidaeAerial insectivoresMyiarchus crinitus

Great Crested Flycatcher has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2,619RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Great Crested Flycatcher

The Great Crested Flycatcher (Myiarchus crinitus) is a North American member of the Tyrant Flycatchers (Tyrannidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.

Size
4.5–9 in long (12–23 cm) — a small to medium flycatcher (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
Diet
Flying insects caught on the wing.
Range
Recorded on 2,619 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 38 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Tyrannidae · Aerial insectivores

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.0 (95% range 2.6–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.0 (95% range 2.6–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.02.63.5
20263.02.63.5
20273.02.63.5
20283.02.63.5
20293.02.63.5

Where the Great Crested Flycatcher Is Detected

BBS routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher, sized by most recent count.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend by State

Great Crested Flycatcher population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+41%1968109
Arkansas-18%196960
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a2
Connecticut+28%196820
Delaware+170%196817
Florida+58%1968123
Georgia+54%1968111
Illinois+122%1968104
Indiana-21%196867
Iowa-5%196939
Kansas+208%196960
Kentucky-28%196863
Louisiana+40%196992
Maine+136%196868
Maryland+101%196876
Massachusetts-5%196832
Michigan-11%1968108
Minnesota-39%196990
Mississippi+137%196874
Missouri+18%196994
Nebraska+745%196952
New Hampshire+4%196825
New Jersey+1%196842
New York-6%1968129
North Carolina+10%1968109
North Dakota+202%196917
Ohio-29%196888
Oklahoma-17%196967
Pennsylvania-39%1968136
Rhode Island+295%19686
South Carolina+4%196851
South Dakota+394%197116
Tennessee+48%196855
Texas-37%1969145
Vermont-37%196826
Virginia-21%196886
West Virginia-67%196862
Wisconsin-30%196898

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Great Crested Flycatcher population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Prairie Potholes+274%196965
Boreal Hardwood Transition-62%1968125
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-8%196886
Atlantic Northern Forest-18%1968145
Badlands and Prairies+31%197312
Shortgrass Prairie+42%198310
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+179%1969110
Edwards Plateau-27%196918
Oaks and Prairies-42%196972
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+65%1968273
Prairie Hardwood Transition+5%1968161
Central Hardwoods+1%1968166
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-30%1969109
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+92%196872
Southeastern Coastal Plain+78%1968346
Appalachian Mountains-32%1968396
Piedmont+23%1968170
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+62%1968162
Peninsular Florida+45%196878
Tamaulipan Brushlands-45%197613
Gulf Coastal Prairie-35%196930

Great Crested Flycatcher Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 16% since 1968. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.