BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968
125Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Great Crested Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029
1.6Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.395% range
±9.5%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.00.273.7
20261.90.173.6
20271.80.083.5
20281.70.003.4
20291.60.003.3

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN171997
LudeMINNESOTA172023
Washington IWISCONSIN172024
BemidjiMINNESOTA141980
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN112011
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN111996
HerronMICHIGAN102016
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA102023
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN92004
CathroMICHIGAN92016
BrainerdMINNESOTA82024
GreenbushMINNESOTA82024
Bear LakeMICHIGAN72024
Brush CreekMICHIGAN72016
MayfieldMICHIGAN72022
AmbergWISCONSIN72024
OntonagonMICHIGAN62019
SkeelsMICHIGAN62015
BackusMINNESOTA62024
Pine RiverMINNESOTA62024
CohassetMINNESOTA62022
GilmanWISCONSIN62024
CreightonMICHIGAN52023
Sand LakeMICHIGAN52024
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.