BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.233.7
20271.90.143.6
20281.80.053.5
20291.70.003.4
20301.60.003.3

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BashawWISCONSIN202025
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN171997
Washington IWISCONSIN172025
BemidjiMINNESOTA141980
GreenbushMINNESOTA132025
Union TwpWISCONSIN132025
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN112011
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN111996
HerronMICHIGAN102016
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA102023
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN92004
CathroMICHIGAN92016
BackusMINNESOTA92025
BrainerdMINNESOTA82024
Bear LakeMICHIGAN72025
Brush CreekMICHIGAN72016
HarriettaMICHIGAN72025
OntonagonMICHIGAN62019
SkeelsMICHIGAN62015
MayfieldMICHIGAN62025
CohassetMINNESOTA62022
LudeMINNESOTA62025
BigforkMINNESOTA62025
Red LakeMINNESOTA62025
WarroadMINNESOTA62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.