Guild

Aerial Insectivores

50 species tracked. As a group, aerial insectivores are -40%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for aerial insectivores. See the full index history below.

Aerial Insectivores Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores as a group is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.2 (95% range 0.83–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores as a group is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.2 (95% range 0.83–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.871.7
20271.30.861.7
20281.30.851.7
20291.30.841.7
20301.20.831.7

Aerial Insectivores By State

Aerial insectivores group trend by state.
Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology →
Maine-72%18
Alaska-67%12
New Hampshire-56%18
Vermont-54%16
West Virginia-43%16
Washington-41%22
Idaho-40%22
South Carolina-36%14
Oregon-34%22
Massachusetts-28%15
Wyoming-27%21
Virginia-26%17
Wisconsin-25%19
Michigan-24%19
Connecticut-22%16
Colorado-21%23
North Carolina-21%17
Florida-19%12
New York-18%19
Utah-16%22
Georgia-15%15
Kentucky-11%16
California-11%24
Texas-10%32
Pennsylvania-10%17
Arizona-8%28
New Jersey-4%17
Arkansas-1%17
Missouri-1%18
Alabama+2%15
Louisiana+4%14
New Mexico+7%27
Nebraska+10%17
Kansas+14%19
South Dakota+14%20
Ohio+15%17
Minnesota+18%19
Montana+20%21
Tennessee+24%17
Illinois+27%17
Maryland+27%18
Oklahoma+35%21
Mississippi+44%14
Indiana+45%18
Iowa+57%17
Nevada+64%18
North Dakota+69%18
Rhode Island+72%11
Delaware+177%15

Member Species

Species in the Aerial insectivores guild.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →
Gray KingbirdTyrannidae-95%1969
Black SwiftApodidae-84%1970
Eastern Whip-poor-willCaprimulgidae-79%1968
Chimney SwiftApodidae-76%1968
Bank SwallowHirundinidae-73%1968
Chuck-will's-widowCaprimulgidae-56%1968
Least FlycatcherTyrannidae-53%1968
Scissor-tailed FlycatcherTyrannidae-51%1969
Eastern KingbirdTyrannidae-46%1968
Purple MartinHirundinidae-42%1968
Common PauraqueCaprimulgidae-32%1969
Northern Beardless-TyrannuletTyrannidae-27%1971
Barn SwallowHirundinidae-25%1968
Great Crested FlycatcherTyrannidae-12%1968
Eastern Wood-PeweeTyrannidae-10%1968
Common NighthawkCaprimulgidae-4%1968
Eastern PhoebeTyrannidae+1%1968
Tree SwallowHirundinidae+4%1968
Acadian FlycatcherTyrannidae+32%1968
Yellow-bellied FlycatcherTyrannidae+43%1968
Greater PeweeTyrannidae+45%1977
Mexican Whip-poor-willCaprimulgidae+46%1979
Willow FlycatcherTyrannidae+48%1968
Western KingbirdTyrannidae+54%1969
Northern Rough-winged SwallowHirundinidae+54%1968
Lesser NighthawkCaprimulgidae+61%1969
Common PoorwillCaprimulgidae+64%1969
Cassin's KingbirdTyrannidae+83%1970
Alder FlycatcherTyrannidae+157%1968
Vaux's SwiftApodidae+158%1970
Brown-crested FlycatcherTyrannidae+170%1969
White-throated SwiftApodidae+182%1969
Olive-sided FlycatcherTyrannidae+186%1968
Violet-green SwallowHirundinidae+227%1969
Cliff SwallowHirundinidae+241%1968
Vermilion FlycatcherTyrannidae+244%1969
Dusky-capped FlycatcherTyrannidae+256%1970
Great KiskadeeTyrannidae+285%1969
Say's PhoebeTyrannidae+323%1969
Ash-throated FlycatcherTyrannidae+327%1969
Black PhoebeTyrannidae+335%1970
Western Wood-PeweeTyrannidae+355%1969
Cave SwallowHirundinidae+492%1980
Dusky FlycatcherTyrannidae+757%1970
Hammond's FlycatcherTyrannidae+840%1970
Couch's KingbirdTyrannidae13×1969
Gray FlycatcherTyrannidae17×1970
Sulphur-bellied FlycatcherTyrannidaen/an/a
Tropical KingbirdTyrannidaen/an/a
Thick-billed KingbirdTyrannidaen/an/a