Guild
Aerial Insectivores
50 species tracked. As a group, aerial insectivores are -42%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.
Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →
guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →
Aerial insectivores as a group have declined in surveyed states, down 42% since 1968.
Aerial Insectivores Population Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores as a group is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.84–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
Aerial Insectivores By State
| Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → | ||
|---|---|---|
| Maine | -74% | 18 |
| Alaska | -65% | 12 |
| Vermont | -56% | 16 |
| New Hampshire | -54% | 18 |
| West Virginia | -43% | 16 |
| Washington | -43% | 22 |
| Idaho | -40% | 22 |
| Oregon | -34% | 22 |
| Massachusetts | -32% | 15 |
| South Carolina | -30% | 13 |
| Utah | -30% | 22 |
| Connecticut | -29% | 16 |
| Wyoming | -28% | 20 |
| Wisconsin | -27% | 19 |
| Virginia | -27% | 17 |
| Michigan | -26% | 19 |
| Colorado | -24% | 23 |
| Kentucky | -23% | 16 |
| North Carolina | -23% | 17 |
| Florida | -20% | 12 |
| New York | -20% | 19 |
| California | -18% | 24 |
| Arizona | -13% | 28 |
| Kansas | -12% | 19 |
| Georgia | -12% | 15 |
| Pennsylvania | -11% | 17 |
| Arkansas | -11% | 17 |
| New Jersey | -10% | 17 |
| Texas | -7% | 32 |
| Missouri | -3% | 18 |
| Alabama | -2% | 15 |
| Louisiana | +3% | 14 |
| Nebraska | +3% | 17 |
| New Mexico | +8% | 27 |
| Ohio | +15% | 17 |
| Montana | +16% | 21 |
| Minnesota | +16% | 19 |
| South Dakota | +19% | 20 |
| Tennessee | +23% | 17 |
| Maryland | +23% | 18 |
| Illinois | +24% | 17 |
| Oklahoma | +27% | 21 |
| Indiana | +34% | 18 |
| Mississippi | +39% | 14 |
| Nevada | +52% | 18 |
| Iowa | +55% | 17 |
| Rhode Island | +72% | 11 |
| North Dakota | +89% | 18 |
| Delaware | +179% | 15 |