Guild
Aerial Insectivores
50 species tracked. As a group, aerial insectivores are -42% since 1968.
Guild Signals
guild collapsecomputed index
Aerial insectivores as a group have declined in surveyed states, down 42% since 1968.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores as a group is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.84–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-6%Change by 2029
1.3Projected 2029 index
0.84–1.795% range
±6.4%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.3 | 0.88 | 1.7 |
| 2026 | 1.3 | 0.87 | 1.7 |
| 2027 | 1.3 | 0.86 | 1.7 |
| 2028 | 1.3 | 0.85 | 1.7 |
| 2029 | 1.3 | 0.84 | 1.7 |
Aerial Insectivores By State
| Maine | -74% | 18 |
| Alaska | -65% | 12 |
| Vermont | -56% | 16 |
| New Hampshire | -54% | 18 |
| West Virginia | -43% | 16 |
| Washington | -43% | 22 |
| Idaho | -40% | 22 |
| Oregon | -34% | 22 |
| Massachusetts | -32% | 15 |
| South Carolina | -30% | 13 |
| Utah | -30% | 22 |
| Connecticut | -29% | 16 |
| Wyoming | -28% | 20 |
| Wisconsin | -27% | 19 |
| Virginia | -27% | 17 |
| Michigan | -26% | 19 |
| Colorado | -24% | 23 |
| Kentucky | -23% | 16 |
| North Carolina | -23% | 17 |
| Florida | -20% | 12 |
| New York | -20% | 19 |
| California | -18% | 24 |
| Arizona | -13% | 28 |
| Kansas | -12% | 19 |
| Georgia | -12% | 15 |
| Pennsylvania | -11% | 17 |
| Arkansas | -11% | 17 |
| New Jersey | -10% | 17 |
| Texas | -7% | 32 |
| Missouri | -3% | 18 |
| Alabama | -2% | 15 |
| Louisiana | +3% | 14 |
| Nebraska | +3% | 17 |
| New Mexico | +8% | 27 |
| Ohio | +15% | 17 |
| Montana | +16% | 21 |
| Minnesota | +16% | 19 |
| South Dakota | +19% | 20 |
| Tennessee | +23% | 17 |
| Maryland | +23% | 18 |
| Illinois | +24% | 17 |
| Oklahoma | +27% | 21 |
| Indiana | +34% | 18 |
| Mississippi | +39% | 14 |
| Nevada | +52% | 18 |
| Iowa | +55% | 17 |
| Rhode Island | +72% | 11 |
| North Dakota | +89% | 18 |
| Delaware | +179% | 15 |
Member Species
| Gray Kingbird | Tyrannidae | -97% | 1969 |
| Black Swift | Apodidae | -82% | 1970 |
| Eastern Whip-poor-will | Caprimulgidae | -79% | 1968 |
| Chimney Swift | Apodidae | -75% | 1968 |
| Bank Swallow | Hirundinidae | -74% | 1968 |
| Chuck-will's-widow | Caprimulgidae | -58% | 1968 |
| Least Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | -55% | 1968 |
| Scissor-tailed Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | -50% | 1969 |
| Common Pauraque | Caprimulgidae | -49% | 1969 |
| Eastern Kingbird | Tyrannidae | -48% | 1968 |
| Purple Martin | Hirundinidae | -44% | 1968 |
| Barn Swallow | Hirundinidae | -26% | 1968 |
| Northern Beardless-Tyrannulet | Tyrannidae | -22% | 1971 |
| Great Crested Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | -16% | 1968 |
| Eastern Wood-Pewee | Tyrannidae | -13% | 1968 |
| Common Nighthawk | Caprimulgidae | -8% | 1968 |
| Eastern Phoebe | Tyrannidae | -1% | 1968 |
| Tree Swallow | Hirundinidae | +0% | 1968 |
| Mexican Whip-poor-will | Caprimulgidae | +18% | 1979 |
| Acadian Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | +35% | 1968 |
| Yellow-bellied Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | +36% | 1968 |
| Willow Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | +45% | 1968 |
| Western Kingbird | Tyrannidae | +49% | 1969 |
| Greater Pewee | Tyrannidae | +58% | 1977 |
| Common Poorwill | Caprimulgidae | +60% | 1969 |
| Northern Rough-winged Swallow | Hirundinidae | +64% | 1968 |
| Cassin's Kingbird | Tyrannidae | +72% | 1970 |
| Lesser Nighthawk | Caprimulgidae | +73% | 1969 |
| White-throated Swift | Apodidae | +93% | 1969 |
| Brown-crested Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | +165% | 1969 |
| Olive-sided Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | +171% | 1968 |
| Alder Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | +178% | 1968 |
| Violet-green Swallow | Hirundinidae | +197% | 1969 |
| Vaux's Swift | Apodidae | +203% | 1970 |
| Dusky-capped Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | +221% | 1970 |
| Great Kiskadee | Tyrannidae | +226% | 1969 |
| Cliff Swallow | Hirundinidae | +229% | 1968 |
| Vermilion Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | +268% | 1969 |
| Say's Phoebe | Tyrannidae | +294% | 1969 |
| Ash-throated Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | +319% | 1969 |
| Western Wood-Pewee | Tyrannidae | +326% | 1969 |
| Black Phoebe | Tyrannidae | +339% | 1970 |
| Cave Swallow | Hirundinidae | +550% | 1980 |
| Dusky Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | +692% | 1970 |
| Hammond's Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | +722% | 1970 |
| Couch's Kingbird | Tyrannidae | 12× | 1969 |
| Gray Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | 15× | 1970 |
| Sulphur-bellied Flycatcher | Tyrannidae | n/a | n/a |
| Tropical Kingbird | Tyrannidae | n/a | n/a |
| Thick-billed Kingbird | Tyrannidae | n/a | n/a |