BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Wood-Pewee Population Analysis

TyrannidaeAerial insectivoresContopus sordidulus

Western Wood-Pewee has surged: up 355% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+355%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,232RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Western Wood-Pewee

The Western Wood-Pewee (Contopus sordidulus) is a North American member of the Tyrant Flycatchers (Tyrannidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.

Size
4.5–9 in long (12–23 cm) — a small to medium flycatcher (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
Diet
Flying insects caught on the wing.
Range
Recorded on 1,232 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 18 states, most concentrated in the Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Family
Tyrannidae · Aerial insectivores

Notable Western Wood-Pewee TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Wood-Pewee has surged in surveyed states: up 355% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Wood-Pewee Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.9 (95% range 1.6–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.9 (95% range 1.6–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.52.3
20271.91.52.3
20281.91.52.3
20291.91.52.3
20301.91.62.3

Where the Western Wood-Pewee Is Detected

BBS routes recording Western Wood-Pewee, sized by most recent count.

Western Wood-Pewee Population Trend by State

Western Wood-Pewee population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-8%198266
Arizona+169%197051
California-18%1970219
Colorado+41%1970142
Idaho+73%197054
Kansasinsufficient datan/a1
Montana+324%1970108
Nebraska15×197318
Nevada+370%197129
New Mexico+182%197077
North Dakota+64%19909
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a2
Oregon-3%1970128
South Dakota+110%196926
Texas-22%197220
Utah+68%197086
Washington-6%1970103
Wyoming+413%197093

Western Wood-Pewee Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Western Wood-Pewee population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 4+96%198645
Northern Pacific Rainforest-46%1970144
Great Basin+29%1970196
Northern Rockies+34%1970187
Prairie Potholes17×198417
Sierra Nevada-34%197040
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+132%1970211
Badlands and Prairies+164%1969103
Shortgrass Prairie+295%197079
Central Mixed Grass Prairie12×19958
Coastal California-70%1970105
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-45%197123
Sierra Madre Occidental+65%197034
Chihuahuan Desert+73%197037

Western Wood-Pewee Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 355% since 1969. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.