BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Wood-Pewee In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Western Wood-Pewee in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+110%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Wood-Pewee has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Wood-Pewee In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.71–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.71–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.642.6
20261.60.662.6
20271.60.682.6
20281.70.692.6
20291.70.712.6

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Western Wood-Pewee in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JornadaNEW-MEXICO122024
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO112024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO92024
PinonNEW-MEXICO82024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO82024
RoswellNEW-MEXICO42022
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO42017
Bear MtnTEXAS42024
Ft. DavisTEXAS42023
Van HornTEXAS42024
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO32024
DemingNEW-MEXICO21971
CornudasTEXAS22006
GirvinTEXAS22012
Casa PiedraTEXAS22023
Coyanda DrawTEXAS22017
ToyahvaleTEXAS22024
Sierra BlancTEXAS22021
MarfaTEXAS22022
GageNEW-MEXICO12024
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO12017
RodeoNEW-MEXICO11992
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12018
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12023
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.