BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Wood-Pewee Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Wood-Pewee in Arizona has surged: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+124%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Wood-Pewee Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Wood-Pewee has surged in Arizona: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Wood-Pewee Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.4 (95% range 0.00–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.4 (95% range 0.00–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.50.007.1
20263.50.007.1
20273.50.007.1
20283.50.007.1
20293.40.007.1

Western Wood-Pewee Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Western Wood-Pewee in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy Jack5320241977
Flagstaff4820221988
Sawmill2920141988
Sprucedale2720231992
Dry Park2420241992
Rucker2220091993
Alpine2220231992
Portal1920241975
Prescott1520221974
Maine1520241992
Pinetop1220221993
Williams1120191993
Aztec Peak919781974
Patagonia920241968
Blue619911975
Tonto Vill.620211992
Skull Valley520221996
Redington520212021
Carr Mtn520241985
Squaw Peak419681968
Sunizona419971969
Peach Spring420092009
Florence319711971
Forest Lakes320241992
Cibola Lake319941994

Western Wood-Pewee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.