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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Wood-Pewee Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Wood-Pewee in Arizona has surged: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+169%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Wood-Pewee Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Wood-Pewee has surged in Arizona: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Wood-Pewee Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Arizona is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 6.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Arizona is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 6.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.70.047.4
20273.70.037.4
20283.70.027.3
20293.70.017.3
20303.70.007.3

Western Wood-Pewee Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Western Wood-Pewee in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy Jack6520251977
Flagstaff3120251988
Alpine3120251992
Sawmill2920141988
Sprucedale2620251992
Tonto Vill.2320251992
Rucker2220091993
Williams2120251993
Dry Park1820251992
Portal1720251975
Maine1320251992
Pinetop1220221993
Aztec Peak919781974
Prescott620251974
Blue619911975
Patagonia620251968
Skull Valley520221996
Redington520212021
Squaw Peak419681968
Sunizona419971969
Peach Spring420092009
Florence319711971
Skull Valley 2320252025
Cibola Lake319941994
Kaibito320081995

Western Wood-Pewee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.