BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Wood-Pewee In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Western Wood-Pewee in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1984.

15×Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Wood-Pewee has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Western Wood-Pewee In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.09–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.09–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.070.34
20260.210.070.35
20270.220.080.36
20280.220.080.36
20290.230.090.37

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Western Wood-Pewee in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sun RiverMONTANA72024
ClevelandMONTANA62024
ChinookMONTANA62024
GlasgowMONTANA42024
LambertMONTANA32024
HarlemMONTANA22021
WhitlashMONTANA22023
SacoMONTANA22024
Hay LakeMONTANA12017
SunburstMONTANA12007
VirgelleMONTANA12015
MaltaMONTANA12024
RedstoneMONTANA11978
Great FallsMONTANA12023
ShelbyMONTANA12019
Wolf PointMONTANA12016
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.