BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Wood-Pewee In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Western Wood-Pewee in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+192%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Wood-Pewee has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Wood-Pewee In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.61–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.61–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.561.5
20261.00.571.5
20271.00.581.5
20281.00.591.5
20291.10.611.5

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Western Wood-Pewee in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CrawfordNEBRASKA312024
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA272024
ElbertCOLORADO222024
Kiowa 2COLORADO82024
TrincheraCOLORADO62022
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO52024
KiowaCOLORADO42018
BennettCOLORADO42017
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO42022
Agate 2NEBRASKA42024
FeltOKLAHOMA42015
CampoCOLORADO32015
PinneoCOLORADO22007
HudsonCOLORADO22022
WaverlyCOLORADO22003
CheyenneCOLORADO22021
HaswellCOLORADO21999
PaxtonNEBRASKA22013
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO21977
SedanNEW-MEXICO22021
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO22010
LamesaTEXAS21973
TexlineTEXAS21998
YoderWYOMING22024
LingleWYOMING22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.