BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Wood-Pewee In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Western Wood-Pewee in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 295% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+295%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Wood-Pewee has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 295% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Wood-Pewee In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.63–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.63–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.63–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.571.6
20271.10.591.6
20281.10.601.7
20291.10.621.7
20301.20.631.7

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Western Wood-Pewee in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA392025
CrawfordNEBRASKA282025
ElbertCOLORADO262025
Kiowa 2COLORADO202025
Arsenal 2COLORADO92025
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO82025
KiowaCOLORADO42018
BennettCOLORADO42017
Agate 2NEBRASKA42025
FeltOKLAHOMA42015
Pine BluffWYOMING42025
CampoCOLORADO32015
FloydNEW-MEXICO32025
CheyenneWYOMING32025
PinneoCOLORADO22007
HudsonCOLORADO22022
WaverlyCOLORADO22003
CheyenneCOLORADO22021
HaswellCOLORADO21999
PaxtonNEBRASKA22013
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA22025
FarleyNEW-MEXICO22025
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO21977
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO22025
SedanNEW-MEXICO22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.