BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Wood-Pewee In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Western Wood-Pewee in Sierra Madre Occidental has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+65%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Wood-Pewee has risen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Wood-Pewee In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 1.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 1.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.61.612
20276.61.512
20286.61.512
20296.51.512
20306.51.412

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Western Wood-Pewee in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy JackARIZONA652025
ReserveNEW-MEXICO372025
FlagstaffARIZONA312025
AlpineARIZONA312025
SprucedaleARIZONA262025
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA232025
RuckerARIZONA222009
WilliamsARIZONA212025
PortalARIZONA172025
MaineARIZONA132025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO132025
PinetopARIZONA122022
Aztec PeakARIZONA91978
PrescottARIZONA62025
BlueARIZONA61991
PatagoniaARIZONA62025
Skull ValleyARIZONA52022
RedingtonARIZONA52021
SunizonaARIZONA41997
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA32025
Peña BlancaARIZONA22024
Mt. GrahamARIZONA22025
Mormon LakeARIZONA11975
PomereneARIZONA12024
San SimonARIZONA11983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.