BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Wood-Pewee In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Western Wood-Pewee in Sierra Madre Occidental has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+49%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Wood-Pewee in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Western Wood-Pewee In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 1.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 1.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.31.411
20266.31.311
20276.31.311
20286.21.211
20296.21.211

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Western Wood-Pewee in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy JackARIZONA532024
FlagstaffARIZONA482022
SprucedaleARIZONA272023
ReserveNEW-MEXICO262023
AlpineARIZONA222023
RuckerARIZONA222009
PortalARIZONA192024
PrescottARIZONA152022
MaineARIZONA152024
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO132024
PinetopARIZONA122022
WilliamsARIZONA112019
Aztec PeakARIZONA91978
PatagoniaARIZONA92024
BlueARIZONA61991
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA62021
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO62024
Skull ValleyARIZONA52022
RedingtonARIZONA52021
Carr MtnARIZONA52024
SunizonaARIZONA41997
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO42019
Forest LakesARIZONA32024
Peña BlancaARIZONA22024
Mormon LakeARIZONA11975

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.