BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Wood-Pewee In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Western Wood-Pewee in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-57%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Wood-Pewee has fallen sharply in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Western Wood-Pewee In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.000.65
20260.270.000.65
20270.270.000.65
20280.270.000.65
20290.280.000.65

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Western Wood-Pewee in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA72024
BlytheCALIFORNIA51974
Squaw PeakARIZONA41968
FlorenceARIZONA31971
Cibola LakeARIZONA31994
PearblossomCALIFORNIA32024
WildroseCALIFORNIA21994
OnyxCALIFORNIA22015
BrawleyCALIFORNIA21971
LagunaARIZONA11972
CoolidgeARIZONA11985
RivieraARIZONA12021
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA12024
InyokernCALIFORNIA12002
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA11990
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA11973
CimaCALIFORNIA11975
Lone PineCALIFORNIA12023
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA12002
Val Of FireNEVADA11991
NelsonNEVADA12007
Ash MeadowsNEVADA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.