BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Wood-Pewee In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Aerial insectivores

Western Wood-Pewee in BCR 4 has surged: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+105%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Wood-Pewee has surged in BCR 4: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Western Wood-Pewee In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Wood-Pewee in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.002.3
20261.00.002.3
20271.00.002.3
20281.00.002.3
20291.00.002.3

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Western Wood-Pewee in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA142024
CircleALASKA122024
NorthwayALASKA112022
Kenny LakeALASKA112024
Kanuti LakeALASKA112024
ChickenALASKA72024
Anchor RiverALASKA72007
Seven LakesALASKA72023
MatanuskaALASKA61983
EagleALASKA52024
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA52023
KuskulanaALASKA52024
Tower BluffsALASKA42022
Goose BayALASKA41982
Skilak LakeALASKA31982
WillowALASKA32024
Burma RoadALASKA32024
Moose CreekALASKA32022
Mt. FairplayALASKA32024
Chatanika RALASKA22021
SourdoughALASKA22024
Nicholai SlALASKA22012
PetersvilleALASKA22024
Kanuti CanynALASKA22024
Manley Ht SpALASKA22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.