BirdAnalyst
Guild · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Aerial Insectivores In Oregon

All statesOregon

22 species in this guild. As a group they are -34%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for aerial insectivores in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Oregon is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.6–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Oregon is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.6–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.73.1
20262.41.73.1
20272.31.63.0
20282.31.63.0
20292.31.63.0

Member Species In Oregon

Aerial insectivores species in Oregon.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
White-throated SwiftApodidae-91%
Willow FlycatcherTyrannidae-78%
Olive-sided FlycatcherTyrannidae-74%
Tree SwallowHirundinidae-31%
Barn SwallowHirundinidae-28%
Violet-green SwallowHirundinidae-27%
Cliff SwallowHirundinidae-25%
Common NighthawkCaprimulgidae-4%
Western Wood-PeweeTyrannidae-4%
Western KingbirdTyrannidae-0%
Eastern KingbirdTyrannidae+9%
Vaux's SwiftApodidae+26%
Northern Rough-winged SwallowHirundinidae+29%
Dusky FlycatcherTyrannidae+35%
Ash-throated FlycatcherTyrannidae+54%
Hammond's FlycatcherTyrannidae+134%
Common PoorwillCaprimulgidae+159%
Say's PhoebeTyrannidae+195%
Purple MartinHirundinidae+228%
Gray FlycatcherTyrannidae+342%
Bank SwallowHirundinidae+501%
Black PhoebeTyrannidae+550%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.