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Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oregon has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oregon is projected to rise about 317% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±206.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+317%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±206.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oregon is projected to rise about 317% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±206.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.004.3
20261.40.004.3
20271.40.004.3
20281.40.004.3
20291.40.004.3

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ordnance13619731971
Bly12919941994
Sandy River2520041993
Albee1919751971
Secret Val1120221975
Joseph1020241972
Ochoco719821973
Alvord Lake720181968
Crooked Riv.620171996
Sheaville620242012
Wedderburn520191970
Modoc Point520141972
Salem520151994
Barnes Val419871971
Silver Creek420191984
Adrian420211984
Donnybrook419971997
Donelly 2420182018
Timber319891976
Logdell319991971
Bridgeport320221986
Adair319811971
Dayton320231974
Pendleton320241978
Elkton320231974

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.