BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Utah has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-7%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Utah. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Utah is projected to fall about 92% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-92%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Utah is projected to fall about 92% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.007.2
20260.210.007.2
20270.170.007.1
20280.120.007.1
20290.070.007.0

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newcastle6220221997
Promontory5020101972
Hanna1620241998
Woodruff1520242002
Saleratus Cr1220131995
Altonah920151970
Oak City820231979
Lynn720231986
Delta720211993
Shivwitz620242001
Moab620242008
Alton620191997
Escalante620232000
Wellington 3520192012
Canyonlands520041996
Gandy520152015
Ferron520172000
E. Bear Lake520221997
Salt Springs420181986
Castleton419771970
Vernon420071993
Soapstone420242024
Monticello420182012
Grizzly Rdge319861986
Boulder320121986

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.