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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Utah has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-44%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Utah. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Utah is projected to fall about 91% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-91%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Utah is projected to fall about 91% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.007.1
20270.180.007.1
20280.130.007.0
20290.090.007.0
20300.040.006.9

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Promontory5020101972
Hanna1620241998
Woodruff1520242002
Saleratus Cr1220131995
Altonah920151970
Oak City820231979
Delta620251993
Shivwitz620242001
Moab620242008
Alton620191997
Escalante620232000
Beaver520251973
Canyonlands520041996
Gandy520152015
Ferron520172000
E. Bear Lake520221997
Salt Springs420181986
Castleton419771970
Vernon420071993
Newcastle420251997
Wellington 3320252012
Grizzly Rdge319861986
Boulder320121986
Fairfield320181987
Jensen320251997

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.