BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Missouri has surged: up 290% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+290%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Missouri: up 290% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Missouri is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Missouri is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.005.7
20262.40.005.7
20272.40.005.7
20282.40.005.7
20292.40.005.6

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Deventer22220241969
Warren2219841975
Kahoka22020242002
Rensselaer1920191971
Stet1919911973
Hayden1620211977
Kingsville1620241993
Pineville1320161975
Frazier1120241979
Emden1120232017
Lincoln1120242024
Palace1120242014
Sticklervill920231970
Elmo820192018
Gerald820152013
Syracuse720241974
Bolckow719871967
Whitewater720231996
Lucerne720212019
Cp Girardeau620181975
Clementine620021979
Barks620231996
Laclede620231997
Mincy620242019
Pulaski520191981

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.