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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Missouri has surged: up 310% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+310%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Missouri: up 310% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Missouri is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Missouri is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.005.6
20272.30.005.6
20282.30.005.6
20292.30.005.6
20302.30.005.6

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Deventer22220241969
Palace2420252014
Warren2219841975
Kahoka22020242002
Stet1919911973
Kingsville1620241993
Pineville1320161975
Lucerne1220252019
Frazier1120241979
Emden1120232017
Lincoln1120242024
Cascade820251976
Moselle820252002
Syracuse720241974
Bolckow719871967
Osage Beach720251997
Cp Girardeau620181975
Clementine620021979
Barks620231996
Laclede620231997
Graniteville620251985
Doe Run620252015
Pulaski520191981
Sticklervill520251970
Whitewater520251996

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.