Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in New Jersey
Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New Jersey has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
+52%Since 1969
27Routes In State
57Years
Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in New Jersey
long arc increasecomputed index
Northern Rough-winged Swallow has risen sharply in New Jersey: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in New Jersey
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New Jersey is projected to rise about 165% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.13–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+165%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.13–2.195% range
±94.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.1 | 0.12 | 2.1 |
| 2026 | 1.1 | 0.12 | 2.1 |
| 2027 | 1.1 | 0.12 | 2.1 |
| 2028 | 1.1 | 0.13 | 2.1 |
| 2029 | 1.1 | 0.13 | 2.1 |
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in New Jersey
| Woodbury Hgt | 4 | 2021 | 1989 |
| Midvale | 3 | 2021 | 1970 |
| Kemah Lake | 3 | 2024 | 1981 |
| Bloomsbury | 3 | 2024 | 1969 |
| Gillette | 3 | 2019 | 1991 |
| Ancora | 2 | 1970 | 1970 |
| Sandbrook | 2 | 2024 | 1971 |
| Dover | 2 | 2022 | 1980 |
| Keyport | 2 | 2015 | 1990 |
| Cranbury | 2 | 2022 | 1987 |
| Cape May Ch | 2 | 2011 | 1994 |
| Winslow | 2 | 2010 | 1990 |
| Croton 2 | 2 | 2023 | 2008 |
| Greenwich | 1 | 2023 | 1967 |
| Deepwater | 1 | 1977 | 1969 |
| Toms River | 1 | 2015 | 1970 |
| Albion | 1 | 2007 | 1975 |
| Holmansville | 1 | 2009 | 1978 |
| New Bedford | 1 | 2016 | 1972 |
| Croton | 1 | 2003 | 1970 |
| Hope | 1 | 1977 | 1974 |
| High Point | 1 | 2023 | 1986 |
| Pottersville | 1 | 2022 | 1987 |
| Roosevelt | 1 | 2006 | 1997 |
| Friendship | 1 | 2018 | 1981 |
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States
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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.