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Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Georgia

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Georgia has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Georgia. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Georgia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.6 (95% range 1.2–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Georgia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.6 (95% range 1.2–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.23.9
20262.51.23.9
20272.51.23.9
20282.61.23.9
20292.61.23.9

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Curry Hill6520192019
Dickey5620182005
Pleasant Hill3020242006
Rutledge2520241979
Cotton2420241976
Minter Tweed1920242006
Kite Lake1520232015
Cartersville1420241966
Lacross1420211974
Wadley1420241977
Hebron1320222006
Crest1220221974
Hiram1220181981
Baxley1120111967
Cuthbert1020241968
Oakman1020221970
Holly Sprs719991978
Stoney Point 2720212013
Guyton619931986
Fairplay619851966
Yates Crossroads620162005
Stoney Point620072007
Lyons519941967
Athens520241970
Henderson520241973

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.