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Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Alabama

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Alabama has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+39%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Alabama is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.2–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Alabama is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.2–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.91.24.7
20262.91.24.7
20272.91.24.7
20282.91.24.7
20292.91.24.7

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Grove6820241967
Smyer Lake6020241966
Wedowee2820231996
Autaugaville2720241996
Valhermoso Spg 21720142014
Lakeview1720242000
Howard1620241966
Epes1620241980
Drummond1620242001
Sprott-Cahaba Riv1520141999
Greensboro1320221966
Riverside1320131999
Riderwood1220191966
Billingsley1220221966
Chacaloochee Bay1120112011
Triana1020121999
Brantley920211966
South720111968
Elamville720241986
Childersburg719981987
Nixburg 2720222001
Dearmanville619801966
Greensport620241966
Beatrice620081966
Woodville620231998

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.