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Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Alabama

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Alabama has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Alabama is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.2–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Alabama is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.2–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.24.8
20273.01.24.8
20283.01.24.8
20293.01.24.8
20303.01.24.8

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wedowee2820231996
Smyer Lake2520251966
Harrell2520251972
Autaugaville2320251996
Howard2220251966
Swaim2120251967
Valhermoso Spg 21720142014
Lakeview1720242000
Epes1620241980
Drummond1620242001
Sprott-Cahaba Riv1520141999
Kymulga1420252001
Pine Grove1320251967
Greensboro1320221966
Riverside1320131999
Riderwood1220191966
Billingsley1220221966
Chacaloochee Bay1120112011
Talladega1020251996
Triana1020121999
Greensport820251966
South720111968
Childersburg719981987
Nixburg 2720222001
Dearmanville619801966

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.