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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±137.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.750.002.0
20260.730.002.0
20270.710.001.9
20280.690.001.9
20290.670.001.9

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chatfield1419991968
Tyler1120151994
Whitewater 21120192011
Huntley1020101969
Frontenac920242007
Millville720181967
Lude720152015
Sherburne Nr720241996
Big Stone620121995
Le Roy520241996
Bigfork519961994
Money Creek420221967
Le Center420071995
Princeton320181972
Mille Lacs320181967
Pine River320241968
Caledonia 2320242018
Tenney319941993
Caledonia320091993
Austin320231997
Whitewater320001995
Lakeville220151974
Arlington220211967
Courtland220171980
Redwood Fall220141983

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.