BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Indiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Indiana has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Indiana: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Indiana is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.94–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.94–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Indiana is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.94–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.913.1
20272.00.923.1
20282.00.933.1
20292.00.943.2
20302.10.943.2

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newberry1720252000
Witts Station1320252000
Lagrange1220251999
Gary819991981
Swayzee820031986
Jamestown820251987
Hebron720251979
Indian Spgs720251984
Azalia620251982
Thorntown520251982
Belmont520241981
Celestine520251979
Georgia520251999
Portage 2520252006
Packertown420041973
Frankfort420212013
Montpelier420242018
Knox320251981
Fowler320221966
Galveston320251981
Pimento320221981
Spencer320241971
Sexton320221982
Milroy320181966
Shelbyville320241985

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.