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Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Wyoming has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-12%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Wyoming. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Wyoming is projected to rise about 203% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.28–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+203%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±147.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Wyoming is projected to rise about 203% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.28–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.242.9
20261.60.253.0
20271.60.263.0
20281.60.273.0
20291.60.283.0

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dwyer16220171994
Sweetwater5720081981
Basin3019871972
Arminto1720042003
Seedskadee 21520242024
Clarkelen1119771974
Highlight1119821980
Mckinnon919801973
Carter920162016
Fontenelle820241984
Arvada820241987
Moran820162002
Rawlins619891989
Ne Entrance520211982
Meeteetse520211998
Gebo520222011
Green River519831977
Ryegrass520232021
Cody420241983
Savery419931992
Soda Well419821980
Mtn View420221982
Walcott420241989
Savery 2420222008
Seedskadee420231993

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.