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Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Ohio

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Ohio has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has risen sharply in Ohio: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Ohio is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.0–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Ohio is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.0–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.972.9
20271.90.982.9
20281.91.002.9
20292.01.02.9
20302.01.02.9

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coshocton1619901990
Omega1220241966
West Elkton1020081996
Wilmington919961966
Kings Creek720151995
W Carrollton720141990
Wayland620151994
Herner Crns620251980
Lucerne620241993
Smithfield620251968
Coal Run619911966
Harveysburg 2620252001
Kunkle520221995
Adamsville519891971
Darrtown520181966
Rome520251966
Shawnee S.F. 2520182001
Middlefield420131967
Baxter Ridge420251999
Harveysburg419951966
Stonecreek420251996
Scioto Trail420071993
Mohican S.F.420251992
Lockport320251991
N Baltimore320191966

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.