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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oklahoma has surged: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+162%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Oklahoma: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.93–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.93–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.93–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.50.786.1
20263.50.826.2
20273.50.856.2
20283.60.896.3
20293.60.936.3

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loco8619851971
Jet6520241992
Peoria5120231967
Bartlesville3020171968
Choctaw2920231968
Ardmore2720091968
Reed1920171968
Beggs1820221992
Collinsville1620191972
Pocola1520161993
Cashion1020231992
Skiatook1020021982
Goodwater820181998
Sandbluff719951992
Chester619871968
Wainwright620121992
Blanco519971973
Mcalester519831969
Ft Sill East519941994
Canadian420091968
Rosston420062006
Hollis420231993
Wichita Mtns East420172004
Big Cedar319971968
Randlett320211970

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.