Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Tennessee
Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Tennessee has surged: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
+219%Since 1968
51Routes In State
58Years
Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in Tennessee
long arc increasecomputed index
Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Tennessee: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Tennessee
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Tennessee is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.2–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+11%Change by 2029
3.7Projected 2029 index
2.2–5.195% range
±32.2%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 5.0 |
| 2026 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 5.0 |
| 2027 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 5.1 |
| 2028 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 5.1 |
| 2029 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 5.1 |
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Tennessee
| Campbellsville | 82 | 2019 | 1967 |
| Tullahoma | 22 | 2015 | 1971 |
| White House | 15 | 2019 | 1977 |
| Pond Creek | 14 | 2024 | 1966 |
| Pawpaw | 11 | 2009 | 1969 |
| Mcfarland | 10 | 1993 | 1967 |
| Whiteville | 9 | 2024 | 1974 |
| Mansfield | 8 | 2024 | 1970 |
| Humboldt | 8 | 2024 | 1986 |
| Glen | 8 | 2024 | 1970 |
| Lovell | 8 | 2019 | 1967 |
| Mecca | 8 | 2014 | 1995 |
| Peytonsville | 7 | 2024 | 1971 |
| Brownsville | 5 | 2023 | 1974 |
| Tibbs | 5 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Climer | 5 | 2002 | 1967 |
| Trenton | 4 | 2011 | 2002 |
| Moscow | 3 | 2024 | 1991 |
| Sweetlips | 3 | 2018 | 1971 |
| Silerton | 3 | 2024 | 1966 |
| Fish Springs | 3 | 2017 | 1967 |
| Signal Mtn | 2 | 2024 | 1979 |
| Big Sandy | 2 | 2023 | 1971 |
| Indian Mound | 2 | 1998 | 1968 |
| Wrigley | 2 | 2022 | 1972 |
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States
alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.