Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Tennessee

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Tennessee has surged: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+219%Since 1968
51Routes In State
58Years

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in Tennessee

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Tennessee: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Tennessee is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.2–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029
3.7Projected 2029 index
2.25.195% range
±32.2%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.52.15.0
20263.62.15.0
20273.62.25.1
20283.62.25.1
20293.72.25.1

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Tennessee.
Campbellsville8220191967
Tullahoma2220151971
White House1520191977
Pond Creek1420241966
Pawpaw1120091969
Mcfarland1019931967
Whiteville920241974
Mansfield820241970
Humboldt820241986
Glen820241970
Lovell820191967
Mecca820141995
Peytonsville720241971
Brownsville520231974
Tibbs520241967
Climer520021967
Trenton420112002
Moscow320241991
Sweetlips320181971
Silerton320241966
Fish Springs320171967
Signal Mtn220241979
Big Sandy220231971
Indian Mound219981968
Wrigley220221972

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.