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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in North Carolina

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Northern Rough-winged Swallow in North Carolina has increased: up 28% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+28%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.002.7
20271.00.002.7
20281.00.002.7
20291.00.002.6
20301.00.002.6

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sturgills1820252010
Siloam1320172005
Jonas Ridge1019711968
Speed720251968
Jordan720221978
Cullowhee720251974
Mashoes619711971
Arcola620251971
Fairmont519811969
Rose519961979
Copeland520251968
Call520241969
Pinetops520222007
Goldston520192001
Maple Hill420212006
South. Pines419961996
Mooresville320011967
Sawmill320241990
Newport320212008
Wilgrove320172001
Hulls Xroads320222000
Todd320231996
Hertford320182010
Gupton320192015
Jones Corner320192005

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.