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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Arkansas has surged: up 436% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+436%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Arkansas: up 436% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Arkansas is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.1–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Arkansas is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.1–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.20.925.6
20263.30.965.6
20273.30.995.7
20283.41.05.7
20293.41.15.7

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilson16520241994
Maynard2620241975
England2620242010
Farwell2020182010
Stark1120231968
Ashdown920191968
Russell820212013
Locust Bayou720231967
Coal Hill720231969
Crowley'S Ridge620242011
Hughes520231974
South Bend520231968
Crows519911972
Waldron519861986
Fulton520241969
Compton520211967
Saffell420191968
Lurton420041985
Poyen 2420242009
Augusta 2420092006
Old Milo320091968
Hope320231969
Blakely319991968
Harrisburg319871972
Whitton319911970

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.