Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in South Carolina
Northern Rough-winged Swallow in South Carolina has surged: up 239% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
+239%Since 1968
42Routes In State
58Years
Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in South Carolina
long arc increasecomputed index
Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in South Carolina: up 239% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in South Carolina
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in South Carolina is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-30%Change by 2029
1.3Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.995% range
±43.3%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.3 | 0.00 | 3.9 |
| 2026 | 1.3 | 0.00 | 3.9 |
| 2027 | 1.3 | 0.00 | 3.9 |
| 2028 | 1.3 | 0.00 | 3.9 |
| 2029 | 1.3 | 0.00 | 3.9 |
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in South Carolina
| Barton Creek | 30 | 2022 | 1968 |
| Campobello | 25 | 2024 | 2016 |
| Whitmire | 14 | 2024 | 2024 |
| Joanna | 13 | 2023 | 1999 |
| Boykin Ml Pd | 8 | 1968 | 1968 |
| Little Mtn | 8 | 1988 | 1980 |
| Battlecreek | 8 | 2014 | 2000 |
| Salem | 6 | 2023 | 2010 |
| Bishopville | 4 | 1986 | 1974 |
| Plum Branch | 4 | 2022 | 1977 |
| Carvers Bay | 4 | 2012 | 2012 |
| Rome | 3 | 2009 | 1973 |
| Walterboro | 3 | 2017 | 1993 |
| Salem Xrd | 3 | 2019 | 1984 |
| Pendleton | 3 | 1976 | 1966 |
| Holly Hill | 2 | 2019 | 1975 |
| Coward | 2 | 2005 | 1966 |
| New Holland | 2 | 2010 | 1973 |
| Boiling Spgs | 2 | 1971 | 1970 |
| Landrum | 2 | 1992 | 1986 |
| New Ellenton | 2 | 2018 | 2018 |
| Blacksburg | 2 | 2011 | 2000 |
| Bennettsville | 2 | 2008 | 1999 |
| Olar | 2 | 2007 | 1998 |
| Pinewood | 2 | 1998 | 1998 |
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States
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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.