BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New York has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New York. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New York is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New York is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.360.000.73
20270.350.000.72
20280.350.000.72
20290.350.000.72
20300.340.000.71

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Centerville1620131967
Harris Hill1120252005
Cherry Hill1019931966
Mt Morris920251969
Hamburg820241968
Kasoag620101976
Platte Cove519921968
Branchport520241968
Churchville520241976
North Easton520251968
Catskills420001969
Gainesville420011970
Highmarket420161969
Blue Ridge N419841970
West Bangor419991999
Purdy419911986
Somers319751975
Austerlitz320241966
Romulus319921987
Swain319981969
Alder Creek320041970
Argyle320061968
Hauppauge220181999
Highland220222021
Westbrookvle220181966

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.