BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New York has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-11%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New York. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New York is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New York is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.000.70
20260.330.000.69
20270.330.000.69
20280.320.000.68
20290.320.000.68

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Centerville1620131967
Cherry Hill1019931966
Hamburg820241968
Kasoag620101976
Platte Cove519921968
Branchport520241968
Churchville520241976
Catskills420001969
Gainesville420011970
Highmarket420161969
Blue Ridge N419841970
West Bangor419991999
Purdy419911986
Somers319751975
Austerlitz320241966
Romulus319921987
Swain319981969
Alder Creek320041970
Argyle320061968
Hauppauge220181999
Highland220222021
Westbrookvle220181966
W Shokan219741974
Ghent220031966
Ballston Lk219701969

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.