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Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in West Virginia

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Northern Rough-winged Swallow in West Virginia has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in West Virginia is projected to rise about 417% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 0.00–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±380.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+417%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±380.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in West Virginia is projected to rise about 417% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 0.00–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±380.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.50.0042
20267.60.0042
20277.70.0042
20287.80.0042
20298.00.0042

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hanover1520241980
Stollings920211986
Hubbardstown920231966
Meadland820211997
Hix720231996
Nicut720241986
Green Bank720081977
Canaan620242015
Cedarville620231983
Bramwell520231978
Pt Pleasant520231993
Arlee519731973
Breeden420241986
Sugar Grove420241972
Washburn420151986
Smithfield420231998
Welch320231980
Rockport320241979
Meadowville320241998
Clinton320241966
Lost River320221996
Shanghai319951995
Smoot220221996
Pedro220231979
Spencer220231986

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.